The matcha shortage, explained.

The short version

Matcha is not running out. Japan grows more of it every year.

The problem is speed. The world wants matcha faster than tea bushes can be shaded, picked, steamed, dried and stone milled. Prices show the gap. In 2026 the gap got wider.

All four numbers come from Japan's agriculture ministry (MAFF), in its October 2026 tea report. That is the newest official data there is. If a page quotes one 2025 auction price and stops there, it is a year behind.

Why matcha cannot simply be made faster

Here is the part most shortage stories skip. Matcha is not a tea you can switch on. Every step below takes time, kit or both.

What MAFF's numbers actually say

Source: MAFF 茶をめぐる情勢, October 2026. Crude tea (aracha) is the farm level product before final refining.

Two things stand out.

1. Tencha is still small. Under a tenth of Japan's tea. Fast growth from a small base is still a small number.
2. Tencha is expensive. Almost five times sencha per kilo. Buyers are bidding hard for it.
3. Gyokuro is cheaper than tencha. Even the most famous shaded leaf tea sells for less than half of tencha now.

What the 2026 harvest did to prices

The first flush (ichibancha, 一番茶) makes the best matcha. MAFF reported that 2026 first flush tea traded at about double the previous year's price in Kagoshima and about 70% higher in Shizuoka. JA Kagoshima reported in June 2026 that its average first flush tencha price had more than doubled on a year earlier.

That gap is the most useful number for a shopper. First flush leaf costs about twice second flush at the farm gate. So when a tin labelled ceremonial costs less than a culinary powder down the aisle, ask why.

Why supply cannot catch up quickly

1. Tea is a slow crop. A new bush takes several years to give a full harvest, and 39.6% of Japan's tea fields had bushes 31 years or older in 2024 (Norinchukin Research Institute, July 2026). Many need replanting, not just more shade cloth.
2. Tencha needs special factories. Ashikubo Teaworks in Aoi Ward, Shizuoka invested about ¥200 million to move from under 10% tencha to about 70% of its 17 hectares. Not every farm can do that.
3. The first flush is shrinking. Japan's first flush crude tea fell from 40,682 t in 2008 to 25,213 t in 2025, while cheaper late season tea grew (MAFF).
4. Exports pull hard. Japan exported a record ¥72.1 billion of green tea in calendar 2025 (MAFF). In fiscal 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026) exports reached 13,125 t, up 42%, with powdered tea about 70% of the volume (The Japan Times, 1 May 2026).

Japan's tea map changed too

In 2024, and again in 2025, Kagoshima overtook Shizuoka as Japan's largest crude tea producer (30,000 t vs 24,100 t in 2025). Kagoshima now ranks first for tencha, Kyoto second and Shizuoka third. Japan's government has also encouraged growers to move from sencha to tencha for export since fiscal 2025 (Kyodo News).

That shift has a knock on effect. When leaf goes to tencha, less is left for everything else, including the sencha that roasters turn into hojicha.

What it means in Australia

Australians took to matcha fast. Japan's green tea exports to Australia reached 195,319 kg in January to August 2025, up 131% on the year before, making Australia Japan's eighth largest destination (Japanese Tea Export Promotion Council, reported by SBS News, 25 October 2025).

Some cafes responded by switching to cheaper powders, including matcha made outside Japan. That is legal, and some of it tastes fine. But it is a different product. ABC News reported in December 2025 that matcha labelling in Australia is almost completely unregulated. The checking falls to you.

Five things people say about the shortage

How to buy smart while prices are high

1. Match the grade to the jobWhisked straight with water, buy first flush ceremonial. In milk or baking, a good culinary grade does the job for less.
2. Check the prefecture and the flushA real Japanese matcha names where it was grown. First flush should be stated, not implied.
3. Look at the colour and the dateBright jade, a clear best before date, and a light proof pouch or tin. Dull khaki usually means old or low grade leaf.
4. Ask for a lab reportHeavy metal and residue testing costs money, so brands that test tend to say so and show the numbers.
5. Buy what you will finish in a monthOpened matcha fades in four to six weeks. Smaller, fresher packs beat a big bag that goes stale.

Timeline: 2025 to 2026